India and Pakistan are on war footing. Can they be brought back from the brink? Published: April 29, 2025 6.21am BST
India and Pakistan are once again at a standoff over Kashmir. A terror attack last week in the disputed region that killed 26 tourists – mostly Indian – has brought the two nuclear-armed South Asian rivals close to a devastating conflict.
India claims the incident was an act of cross-border terrorism supported by Pakistan and has vowed to hunt down and punish the perpetrators. In retaliation, it has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty to deprive Pakistan of water from the Indus River, which runs through the Indian-controlled region of Jammu and Kashmir.
Pakistan has condemned India’s action as an “act of war”.
Both sides have put their forces on alert as low-level clashes have broken out along the “Line of Control”, the de facto border established in the region following the first Indo-Pakistan war in 1947–48.
Pakistan’s defence minister now says a “military incursion” by India is imminent. Can all-out war between the two sides be averted?
A long-simmering dispute
At the time of the painful partition of British India in the 1940s, the country’s Muslim minority were given the option of joining the newly created state of Pakistan. Kashmir’s Hindu ruler initially wanted independence for the region, but in fear of invaders from Pakistan, decided to join India.This laid the foundations for an enduring, bitter dispute over control of the Muslim-majority region. Attempts at a resolution have been hard to come by.
The dispute has also become intrinsically linked to the political and strategic postures of the two protagonists.
New Delhi has vehemently opposed any nationalist demands for independence in Jammu and Kashmir. It fears this would set a precedent for many other minorities who want autonomy in multi-ethnic India.
Initially, the region was given a special autonomous status under Article 370 of the Indian constitution. But since 2014, the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has forcefully sought to bring Jammu and Kashmir under New Delhi’s control.
In 2019, it revoked Article 370 and isolated the region from the rest of India and the outside world.
Modi’s government argued this was necessary to bring progress and prosperity to the people of Jammu and Kashmir. In reality, it was aimed at squashing separatist movements and easing the way for more Hindus to move to the territory. more
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